Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.
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2021 GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS:
BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)
UPDATED: Feb. 24, 2021
AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: The Golden Globes nominations were announced on Feb. 3, with Netflix’s “Mank” from David Fincher leading with six nods. As the ceremony approaches on Feb. 28, the categories have been analyzed to determine what they mean for the awards season. Several nominees have already made history, but with final voting taking place and due back to Ernst & Young’s accounting firm by Feb. 23, many films and performances could be record-breakers or trendsetters if they are selected as winners. Read all the records that could be set with each set of nominees for the Globes on Variety. With just under 30 days until the Oscar nominations, set to be announced on March 15, the race continues to take shape, possibly presenting more twists and turns over the next few weeks.
If the predictions are correct, Boseman would be the first Black acting posthumous winner in history and the second overall in the category after Peter Finch for “Network” (1976). He would be the fourth Black actor winner of the category – Forest Whitaker in “The Last King of Scotland” (2007), Denzel Washington in “The Hurricane” (2000) and Sidney Poitier in “Lilies in the Field” (1963). He would also be the first acting winner from a film that debuted on a streaming service in this category. Hopkins is the oldest nominee in the category’s history. If he wins, he’ll be the oldest winner ever. If he loses, with seven career nominations in film, he will have the most losses by a male actor in the motion picture categories ever (he has one additional nod for television). Technically, Paul Newman has the most losses for film performances at nine, but he has won several other categories in his career, including directing. Hopkins is currently tied with Katharine Hepburn and Susan Sarandon (seven nods for film, two for television).
Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
Awards Circuit Winners Chart (2020-2021)
2021 Awards Season Calendar
AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:
"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" (Netflix)
GLOBES HISTORY: Never nominated
DIRECTOR: George C. Wolfe
SYNOPSIS: Chicago, 1927. A recording session. Tensions rise between Ma Rainey, her ambitious horn player and the white management determined to control the uncontrollable "Mother of the Blues". Based on Pulitzer Prize winner August Wilson's play..
STARRING: Chadwick Boseman, Dusan Brown, Jonny Coyne, Viola Davis, Colman Domingo, Taylour Paige, Michael Potts, Jeremy Shamos, Glynn Turman
"The Father" (Sony Pictures Classics)
GLOBES HISTORY: 7 nominations (Cecil B. DeMille receipent in 2006)
DIRECTOR: Florian Zeller
SYNOPSIS: A man refuses all assistance from his daughter as he ages. As he tries to make sense of his changing circumstances, he begins to doubt his loved ones, his own mind and even the fabric of his reality.
STARRING: Olivia Colman, Mark Gatiss, Anthony Hopkins, Imogen Poots, Rufus Sewell, Olivia Williams
"Sound of Metal" (Amazon Studios)
GLOBES HISTORY: 1 nomination (HBO's "The Night Of" in 2017)
DIRECTOR: Darius Marder
SYNOPSIS: A heavy-metal drummer's life is thrown into freefall when he begins to lose his hearing.
STARRING: Riz Ahmed, Olivia Cooke, Paul Raci, Mathieu Almaric, Lauren Ridloff
GLOBES HISTORY: 1 nominations, 1 win (2017's "Darkest Hour")
ROLE: Herman J. Mankiewicz
DIRECTOR: David Fincher
SYNOPSIS: 1930s Hollywood is re-evaluated through the eyes of scathing social critic and alcoholic screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz as he races to finish the screenplay of Citizen Kane for Orson Welles.
STARRING: Tom Burke, Lily Collins, Joseph Cross, Charles Dance, Monika Gossman, Ferdinand Kingsley, Jamie McShane, Tuppence Middleton, Toby Leonard Moore, Gary Oldman, Tom Pelphrey, Amanda Seyfried, Sam Troughton
"The Mauritanian" (STXfilms)
OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
ROLE: Mohamedou Ould Salahi
DIRECTOR: Kevin Macdonald
SYNOPSIS: A detainee at the U.S military's Guantanamo Bay detention center is held without charges for over a decade and seeks help from a defense attorney for his release.
STARRING:Tahar Rahim, Jodie Foster, Benedict Cumberbatch, Shailene Woodley
AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each.
Academy Awards Predictions (All Categories)
2021 Golden Globes Predictions (Film)
2021 SAG Awards Predictions (Film)
About the Academy Awards (Oscars)
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
- The Oscars are scheduled for Sunday, April 25, 2021.
About the Golden Globes
The Golden Globes Awards, hosted by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, is held annually with 93 members since 1944. The group recognizes excellence in film and television across drama and comedy or musical categories. Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land” holds the record for the most awards won by a single film with seven. Milos Forman’s “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” and Alan Parker’s “Midnight Express” are next in line with six each. Robert Altman’s “Nashville” has the record for most nominations received by a film with 11 while Colin Higgins’ “Foul Play,” Francis Ford Coppola’s “The Godfather Part III” and Mike Nichols’ “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?” share the record for receiving the most nominations and not winning a single award at seven.
- The Golden Globes are scheduled for Feb. 28, 2021.
About the SAG Awards
The Screen Actors Guild Awards, hosted by SAG-AFTRA, is an annual award show that has become one of the most important and key indicators for the Oscars. Four films have won the most SAG awards with three: 1999’s “American Beauty,” 2002’s “Chicago,” 2011’s “The Help” and 2017’s “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Three movies have been nominated for the most SAG awards with five: 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love,” “Chicago” and 2008’s “Doubt.”
- The SAG Awards are scheduled to take place on Sunday, April 4, 2021